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Leak: No deal Brexit 'would cost 9% of Scotland's GDP'

08 February 2018

In the event that Scotland stays in the single market and customs union, it would lose an estimated 2.5% more of its GDP than now projected.

The analysis, which was produced by Treasury officials last month, predicts that Brexit with a free trade deal would reduce Northern Ireland's economic growth by 8 per cent.

The region on course to take the biggest hit is the North East, which was heavily in favor of leaving the European Union.

The leaks comes as the government analysis is distributed to Members of Parliament on the Exiting the EU Subcommittee, which hosts a number of pro-Remain MPs.

"We are not into talks about trade yet, because we think it's important that we prioritise the withdrawal agreement and transition phase and make sure what was agreed in December is written into the legal text of that agreement", he added.

Northern Ireland would suffer an 8 per cent dip in growth after a free trade deal, a 12 per cent dip in the event of "no deal", and a 2.5 per cent fall in the single market.

The SNP described the documents, now available to MPs in the House of Commons library, as "utterly grim reading" and demanded Theresa May's government publishes its Brexit papers in full.

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The forecasts, seen by MPs, model the 15-year impact of the United Kingdom staying in the single market, doing a trade deal with the European Union or leaving without a deal.

London weathers the storm best, with the local economy falling two per cent if we strike a free trade deal and 3.5 per cent with no deal. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the North East.

Labour MP Chris Leslie said: "Devastating impact on incomes, jobs and ultimately for the revenues we need for NHS & public services - hitting Midlands, north and Northern Ireland especially hard".

Jude Kirton-Darling, Labour MEP for the North East of England, added: "As disquieting as this may be, it is unfortunately only the beginning of a string of terrible news to come out of the leaked impact assessment papers, and the direct result of the Tories being incapable of negotiating a Brexit deal that won't drain all money and economic prospects out of the North East".

"Government analysis suggests that Northern Ireland could be cost up to 12 per cent of its GDP. Now the facts are known, the people are entitled to a vote on the deal and a chance to exit from Brexit".

Asked during Prime Minister's Questions if she would see off any "threats" from the EU, Ms May said: "We will be robust in our arguments".

The cabinet sub-committee includes Northern Ireland secretary Karen Bradley, along with the most senior Brexiteers and Remainers in the government. "And is this too high a price to pay to stop a Tory civil war breaking out?" he said.

Leak: No deal Brexit 'would cost 9% of Scotland's GDP'