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Libyan Oil Exports Rise Amid High OPEC Compliance

05 February 2018

Production has doubled over the last 10 years, from a low of around 5 million bpd in 2007, reversing decades of decline since the 1970s.

New sanctions from the US target tankers that were revealed to be delivering oil products from Russian Federation to North Korea.

The US oil production is expected to reach an average of 10.3 million barrels per day this year and 10.9 million barrels per day in 2019, the IEA said in its monthly market report.

US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.8 million barrels from the previous week: for the first time in almost three months.

The agency, whose next forecast is scheduled for release February 13, estimated that oil stocks held by OECD nations as of November were about 90 million barrels above the five-year average that OPEC has said it is targeting with its cuts.

"I think the question, a little bit in the longer term is-is this the last big rise in USA production?" he questioned in an interview with Reuters.

This compliance shows great restraint by producers that in other times may have been tempted to cheat or at least look to pick up for plunging production in the collapsing socialist state Venezuela. Production in the Federal Gulf of Mexico reached 1.67 million b/d, up 14% from the October 2017 level as the region recovered from Hurricane Nate. Given that Oil is quoted and traded in U.S. Dollars, a rise in the U.S. currency is a direct hit to Oil prices. Oil and Gas Journal economist Conglin Xu said that will see the USA overtake Saudi Arabia and possibly Russian Federation.

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Domestic production grew by 41,000 barrels per day to 9.919 million barrels per day.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Labor Department added more support when reporting first-time claims for unemployment dropped 1,000 for the week ending January 27. Imports rose by 389,000 barrels per day to 8.43 million barrels per day. As disruptive influences have risen in Libya, the frequency of our high impact alerts have increased, along with the price of oil (hark, below).

On its first day as the front-month, Brent futures for April delivery gained 76 cents, or 1.1 percent, to settle at $69.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for March delivery jumped $1.07, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $65.80. Yet, the bank said its view was cyclical and sees Brent dropping down to US$60 a barrel by 2020.

Texas led the way, producing 3.89 million barrels each day last November, the EIA said in its report. So the total lag from a change in prices to a change in production can be six to 12 months especially once delays in reporting are taken into account.

Other analysts are not convinced that the markets justify such a high price.

The aggressive bullish run that's been seen in Oil prices over the past seven months softened this week in both WTI and Brent. The process of injecting water, sand and chemicals into wells to free oil and gas from shale rock formations has fueled a boom in US output and helped the nation top Saudi Arabia as the world's second-biggest crude producer, after Russian Federation.

America's oil renaissance also has huge implications for Canadian oil producers and the wider economy, which has manifested itself in many direct and indirect ways.

Libyan Oil Exports Rise Amid High OPEC Compliance